Preparing for El Niño
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A strong El Niño is expected to affect Aotearoa New Zealand through spring and summer 2026 and into 2027. El Niño is a natural climate pattern that can influence our weather and environments. This can increase the chance of more frequent and extreme weather events.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon centred on the tropical Pacific Ocean.
During an El Niño, sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific become warmer than average. These changes are accompanied by changes in air pressure, winds, cloud cover, and rainfall patterns.
Although El Niño originates thousands of kilometres away from New Zealand, it can significantly influence our climate by altering atmospheric circulation patterns across the Pacific basin.
New Zealand tends to experience stronger and more frequent winds from the southwest through to northwest from late winter through to early autumn during an El Niño event. This typically brings drier than usual conditions for eastern and northern areas of both islands, and wetter than usual conditions for the western and lower South Island.
Earth Sciences New Zealand declared this current El Niño event as part of its Seasonal Climate Outlook released on 2 July 2026.
Find out more about how Earth Sciences New Zealand monitors and measures El Niño here.
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What does this El Niño event mean for New Zealand?
Spring 2026 is expected to be drier than normal for northern and eastern parts of both islands, with the greatest odds for dryness over northern and eastern parts of the North Island. A windier than usual spring is in store for much of New Zealand, especially for the South Island and lower and eastern part of the North Island.
At times, strong wind will drive unusually warm weather, with eastern parts of both islands likely to see spikes in high temperatures, which combined with dryness, will result in increased wildfire risk.
An active, stormy spring is expected for the western and lower South Island, as frequent fronts and low pressure systems bring periods of high wind and heavy rain, and consequently increased chances of flooding.
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How long will this El Niño event last?
Usually, El Niño peaks in the summer, between December and February. The latest forecasts suggest this current El Niño may reach its peak relatively ‘early’, in November or December 2026. Given the strength of the event, a return to ‘neutral’ conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) is not expected before April – May 2027.
What impact does climate change have on El Niño ?
Current forecasts indicate that 2027 could be a record, or near-record, warm year globally, due to the combined influence of ongoing human-induced climate change and the tail-end of warming from this current El Niño.
Does this El Niño increase drought and wildfire risk?
El Niño events can increase the likelihood of drought, and elevate wildfire risk, by influencing rainfall and wind patterns. Wildfire risk is generally highest in areas that are both drier and windier than usual. This El Niño is expected to bring increased wildfire risk for several regions, particularly Canterbury, Otago and Marlborough.
While rainfall and wind are important factors for wildfire risk, they are not the only ones. People are encouraged to check for fire bans and stay on top of the expected wildfire risk before they light a fire.
Earth Sciences New Zealand’s Drought Forecasting Dashboard shows predicted drought forecasts up to five weeks ahead, and the New Zealand Drought Monitor keeps track of observed dryness across New Zealand based on a standardised climate index.
How should New Zealanders prepare for El Niño?
The Ministry for Primary Industries has resources for farmers and growers who are expecting to be impacted by too little or too much rain:
Farm checklist – Preparing for dry weather
Farm checklist – Preparing for prolonged wet weather
FENZ has guidance for preparing for wildfire season.
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El Niño effects will vary depending on where you live, its strength and the time of year.
Public health risks from an El Niño this spring and summer could include:
heat waves and extreme heat
drought and drinking water shortages
wildfires and smoke
flooding
strong wind
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Who may be more at risk
Extreme weather can impact all of us. However, some people may be more at risk than others.
This could include
pēpi and tamariki
older people
pregnant women
disabled people
people with long-term health conditions, including heart, lung, kidney or mental health conditions
people who live alone or may be socially isolated
people who work outdoors or in hot environments
people living in housing that is hard to keep cool
people in rural or remote areas
people who live in areas that often experience droughts or floods
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If you, your whānau or your community are in these groups then make sure you know:
what the risks could be in your area
what you need to do to prepare.
Getting health advice during extreme weather
There are lots of ways you can get the right care and advice for you and your whānau when you:
feel unwell
have an injury
have a health concern
For urgent health advice contact your usual healthcare provider, pharmacist, Hauora Māori or Pacific provider, if they are open and you can call.
If you are not enrolled or cannot see your usual healthcare provider, visit a local urgent care centre. You do not need an appointment, but you might have to wait.